Pigi nafta – pigesnis maistas ir didelės žemės ūkio problemos
Jurgitos Lapienytės nuotr. / Pigi nafta – pigesnis maistas ir didelės žemės ūkio problemos
Ar pigesnė nafta reiškia mažesnes maisto produktų kainas, klausia jis? Tik iš dalies. Daugumai besivystančių valstybių, kur derliaus nuėmimui nesunaudojama daug energijos, taip pat ten, kur maistas nėra vežamas iš toli, pingančios naftos poveikis bus ribotas. Tuo metu dideliems naftos eksportuotojams maisto kainos gali pakilti.
Apskritai pigi nafta sumažins maisto vežimo kaštus iš gamintojų vartotojams ir sumažins derliaus nuėmimo kainas. Tačiau ūkininkams žaliavų pigimas nėra gerai – ūkiams reikės didesnio derliaus, kad išlaikytų tokį patį pelną.
Kiek laikysis tokios naftos kainos, nėra aišku. Prognozuojama, kad šiemet naftos kainos liks mažos, kitąmet šiek tiek paaugs. Naftos kainą žemyn stipriai tempia trys pagrindiniai faktoriai: JAV skalūnų naftos gavyba, nerimas dėl gavybos sutrikimo Artimuosiuose Rytuose, OPEC sprendimas nemažinti naftos gavybos kvotų.
Ką daryti valstybėms? Ūkiai turėtų bandyti didinti produktyvumą, kad atsvertų mažų kainų įtaką savo pelnui.
Valstybės, kuriuos importuoja didesnę dalį savo suvartojamo maisto – Venesuela, Jemenas, Nigerija ir Azerbaidžanas, – susidurs su labai rimtais nemalonumais, jeigu jos nesusikrovė finansinio rezervo tuo metu, kai naftos kainos buvo aukštesnės. Investicijos šiemet į maisto produktų pasiūlą galėtų padėti sumažinti importą kitą sezoną, o gausesnės investicijos į žemės ūkį padėtų diversifikuoti ateities eksportą ir sumažinti priklausomybę nuo naftos.
Atviros rinkos padėtų išvengti staigių kainų augimo. Pastaruoju metu buvo susirūpinta, kad Rusija gali sumažinti kviečių eksportą (Rusija yra ketvirta didžiausia kviečių eksportuotoja pasaulyje), dėl to kviečių kainos kilo, net ir pingant naftai.
Maisto produktų suvartojimas auga ir augimas gali dar paspartėti dėl mažų kainų. Tačiau, analitiko teigimu, prasti laikai gali slėptis tiesiog už kampo ir būtina stebėti tokius reiškinius kaip sausra Brazilijoje, ar Ukrainos žemės ūkis gaus pakankamai pinigų pavasariui, kaip Rusijoje vyks kviečių eksportas.
Apibendrindamas savo įžvalgas, analitikas teigia, kad globalius, regioninius ir nacionalinius iššūkius maisto sektoriuje galime įveikti didindami investicijas į žemės ūkį ir mokslą.
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